Sunday, 3 September 2023

Some more economic indicators.

 01.  Divergent consumption trend. 

 

Divergence generally means two things are moving apart while convergence implies that two forces are moving together. In the world of economics, finance, and trading, divergence and convergence are terms used to describe the directional relationship of two trends, prices, or indicators.    Divergence is when the price of an asset is moving in the opposite direction of a technical indicator, such as an oscillator, or is moving contrary to other data. Divergence warns that the current price trend may be weakening, and in some cases may lead to the price changing direction. 

 

02.  Bond Equity Earnings Yield Ratio (BEER)

 

BEER has two parts—the numerator is represented by a benchmark bond yield, such as a five- or 10-year Treasury, while the denominator is the current earnings yield of a stock benchmark, such as the S&P 500.

A comparison of the yield on long-term government debt and the average yield on an equity market benchmark can be used as a form of indicator on when to buy stocks. If the ratio is above 1.0 the stock market is said to be overvalued; a reading of less than 1.0 indicates the stock market is undervalued.

 

03.  Real yield curve

 

The real yield curve is computed as the difference between the nominal yield curve and the implied inflation rates. Forward real interest rates could therefore be derived from the real yield curve.

 

A real interest rate is an interest rate that has been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation. Once adjusted, it reflects the real cost of funds to a borrower and the real yield to a lender or to an investor. A real interest rate reflects the rate of time preference for current goods over future goods

 

04.  Wage growth 

 

Wage growth (real wage growth) is a rise of wage adjusted for inflations, often expressed in percentage. In macroeconomics, wage growth is one of the main indications to measure economic growth for a long-term since it reflects the consumer's purchasing power in the economy as well as the level of living standards

 

05.  Fiscal deficit. 

 

The difference between total revenue and total expenditure of the government is termed as fiscal deficit. It is an indication of the total borrowings needed by the government. While calculating the total revenue, borrowings are not included.

 

06.  Current Account deficit.

 

Current account deficit (CAD) is when the value of a country's imports of goods and services is greater than its exports. CAD and fiscal deficit together make up twin deficits that can impact the stock market and investors. Fiscal Deficit is the gap between the government's expenditure requirements and its receipts.

 

07.  Weighted average lending rate 

 

A weighted average interest rate is an average that is adjusted to reflect the contribution of each loan to the total debt. The weighted average multiplies each loan's interest rate by the loan balance and divides the sum by the total loan balance.

 

08.  Non food credit growth 

 

The bank credit is categorized into food credit and non-food credit. The food credit indicates the lending made by banks to the Food Corporation of India (FCI) mainly for procuring foodgrains. It is a small share of the total bank credit

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